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NEW DELHI: For more than 10 years, Bangladesh has been the brightest spot in India’s regional diplomacy efforts.
Dhaka remained a steady partner to New Delhi as it navigated ties with neighbours amid Beijing’s efforts to make inroads into South Asia.
However, the recent weeks of political turmoil in Bangladesh that led to the ousting of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina has put a strain on bilateral relations.
During Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh engaged with China but kept India closer – becoming New Delhi’s strongest ally.
India gladly reciprocated – Hasina was the first state guest of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he began his third tenure in June this year.
Hasina fled Bangladesh on Aug 5 after a student-led revolution that began as a month of protests against job quotas and swelled into a movement demanding her downfall.
The 76-year-old’s critics have long accused New Delhi of propping up a corrupt and undemocratic regime.
India has denied the charge, but the claim gained significance when New Delhi gave Hasina refuge after her ousting.
Experts said the ex-prime minister’s presence in India will make engaging with Bangladesh’s new leadership tricky for New Delhi.
Bangladeshi politicians, human rights groups and citizens are demanding India extradite Hasina.
Activists have referred to her as “the people’s enemy”, saying she should be on trial for murder and genocide.
“The (Bangladesh) government’s position as of now, (seems to be giving) time to India to recalibrate and come up with a policy that would help (them) work together in a dignified manner, as an equal partnership, and respecting the sovereignty of Bangladesh as well its own domestic politics and internal affairs,” said Dr Ali Riaz, a senior fellow at American think tank the Atlantic Council.
Former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Riva Ganguly Das said: “Diplomacy has to work over time to build trust, to build confidence between the two countries so that we can move ahead.”
She played down anti-India sentiments prevailing in Bangladesh, saying the bilateral economic relationship – with trade at over US$15 billion per year – is a fact that Dhaka cannot ignore.
Analysts said any deterioration of ties with its bigger neighbour to the west will only harm Dhaka, adding that this is a relationship the interim government needs to nurture carefully.
Hasina’s links to India predate her 15-year rule, and New Delhi’s ties to Dhaka are as old as Bangladesh itself.
In 1971, India fought a war with Pakistan to help liberate Bangladesh from its rule. Aside from military support, India also took in millions of refugees.
Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman – who is also Hasina’s father – later said that Dhaka would never forget India’s assistance.
But observers in Bangladesh said this special historical relationship no longer guarantees New Delhi special treatment.
They noted that the new government in Dhaka will be seeking to broaden its regional engagements and could look to China or Pakistan – both of which have ongoing border disputes with India.
“Given the relationship between China and Pakistan, that nexus operating in our neighbourhood which is so close to us, cannot be good news for us,” said Das, who served as ambassador in 2019.
Bangladeshi experts said India needs to move beyond past ties, and have called for a complete reassessment of its ongoing engagements and projects with New Delhi.
“Given the circumstances, there should be a review of these agreements. India should be prepared to sit and talk about it,” said Dr Riaz, who is also president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies.
If and when elections happen next, experts said it is quite likely that former prime minister Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party will come back to power.
Zia’s tenure from 1999 to 2004 also coincided with the lowest phase of bilateral ties between New Delhi and Dhaka.
With Bangladeshis looking forward to a new chapter for their country, many want to erase Hasina and her family’s legacy. Experts said that New Delhi must also find a way to push the reset button on bilateral ties.